Roger Pielke Jr.
Making sense of science, policy, and politics.
Senior Fellow, American Enterprise Institute
Professor Emeritus, University of Colorado Boulder
Making sense of science, policy, and politics.
Senior Fellow, American Enterprise InstituteProfessor Emeritus, University of Colorado Boulder
New Publications: Peer-Reviewed Articles and Commentary
New on THB
Publications: Research and CommentaryRoger’s peer-reviewed articles, with free PDFs where available, and his op-eds and columns by year, in the new Publications menu.
New on THB
Debt Explorer: Dollars or Share of GDPAt readers’ request, the THB US Deficit and Debt Explorer now shows its results as a share of GDP, in dollars or in inflation-adjusted dollars.
In the News
Comment les catastrophes naturelles relancent le débat entre décroissants et technosolutionnistesL’Opinion (France) — How a summer of disasters revived the debate between degrowth and eco-modernism, ahead of COP31.
Tropical Cyclones
Titled Chart DownloadsEvery chart saved from Global Tropical Cyclones now carries a title naming the chart, region and years.
THB on Substack
Debate: What is Climate Change?A conversation with Andrew Dessler
THB on Substack
A $28 Trillion MistakeMajor errors in two papers at the center of the climate liability movement
Tropical Cyclones
Season to date79 named storms, 845.7 ACE — +23% vs the 1980–present average, #7 of 47 years.
US Extreme Weather
Drought23.0% of the CONUS in severe-or-worse drought — 435th of 1,401 weeks since 2000.
Global Extreme Weather
Drought25.1% of global land in severe-or-worse drought — 10th of 569 months since 1979.
Decarbonization
SlovakiaCO₂ intensity of GDP down 4.4%/yr since 2000 — 0.728 to 0.234 kg per $.
Blog Archives
Typhoons in the PhilippinesWriting in the New York Times today Coral Davenport makes a strong claim about…
Substack Archive
In From the ColdI'm profiled in the Swedish magazine Kvartal
Publications
Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 C and 3 C of warming by 2100Argues that realistic, observationally grounded near-term emissions trajectories point…
In the News
Revenge of the Climate Heretics: 50 Leading Eco-Policy DissentersNewsweek
In the News
Trump’s Energy Council Is a Massive ShamThe New Republic — Roger on the National Energy Dominance Council: “It’s…
Latest from The Honest Broker on SubstackNov 9, 2026
A conversation with Andrew Dessler
Nov 5, 2026
Major errors in two papers at the center of the climate liability movement
Nov 2, 2026
AI tools will transform how we evaluate published science. Journal editors, get ready.
Making Sense of Science in Policy and Politics
Buy on Amazon →
What Scientists and Politicians Won't Tell You About Global Warming
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Disasters and Climate Change (2nd ed.)
Buy on Amazon →
The War Against Cheating and Corruption in the Cutthroat World of Elite Sports
Buy on Amazon →
The Dispatch Commentary
Oct 2026
The Free Press Commentary
Sep 2026
The Dispatch Commentary
Aug 2026
The Dispatch Commentary
Jun 2026
The Ross Kaminsky Show, KOA Radio
Oct 2026
The Lars Larson Show Radio
Sep 2026
Cleaning Up with Michael Liebreich Podcast
Jun 2026
Stossel Video
May 2026
Six public dashboards, each with its own data sources and its own update schedule.
Live hurricane and tropical cyclone data, tracked against the historical record.
View here →
Trend analysis across tornadoes, hail, drought, streamflow, wildfire, and more.
Visit site →
The same hazards as the US dashboard, worldwide.
Visit site →CO₂ intensity of GDP and per-capita emissions by country, with a calculator for the rate any target needs.
Visit site →Set eight assumptions and build an emissions scenario, against the record and the seven CMIP7 marker scenarios.
Visit site →Set economic and policy assumptions (productivity, labor force participation, immigration, interest rates, taxes, Social Security, health programs and more) and compare the resulting federal deficits and debt with CBO's February 2026 baseline for fiscal years 2027 through 2036.
View here →New pages, new features and corrections across THB and its dashboards over the past two weeks, apart from the routine daily data updates.
Read THB on Substack →
