President Obama gave a nice speech today at the National Academy of Sciences praising science and promising resources, two of the favorite things that scientists like to receive from presidents. But what, exactly did the president promise?

He said:

It’s our character to lead. And it is time for us to lead once again. So I’m here today to set this goal: We will devote more than 3 percent of our GDP to research and development.

What does this actually mean?

The federal budget currently invests about 1.0% of GDP into R&D (PDF). Is the president promising to triple the federal R&D budget? I doubt it.

Public plus private R&D was about 2.6% of R&D in 2007 (PDF), to get to 3.0% would require an additional investment of at least $70 billion from public and private sources (using 2007 values). Is that going to happen? I’m not sure how.

Maybe the President is thinking that with a projected GDP of $14.2 trillion in 2009, that would mean that $22 billion in stimulus funding for R&D plus $151 billion in FY2009 appropriations would require about $250 billion in private R&D to reach the 3% threshold. Will the private sector invest $250 billion in 2009? I don’t know.

What did the president promise today?