In 1997 I had the opportunity to serve on the National Weather Service Disaster Survey Team that went to Grand Forks and Fargo to investigate the role of flood forecasts in the flood disaster that year in Grand Forks. So far at least, it looks like that scale of disaster will be avoided this year due in part to good fortune, but also good decisions by communities that have few equals in fighting floods.

After my experience on the Disaster Survey Team I wrote the following paper which discussed the lessons that I drew about the role of forecasts in the disaster. The short story is that accurate prediction of flood crests in this region is simply impossible, and as a consequence, flood fighting decisions have to be made in the face of both uncertainty and ignorance. These lessons seem to have been well learned, though the challenges presented by floods in the region will remain.

Pielke, Jr., R.A., 1999: Who Decides? Forecasts and Responsibilities in the 1997 Red River Flood. American Behavioral Science Review 7, 2, 83-101. (PDF)