July 27, 2006
Hockey Stick Hearing Number Two
Today, the House Committee on Energy and Commerce is hosting its second hearing on the so-called “hockey stick” in the past two weeks.
From last week’s marathon hearing TechCentralStation provides an interesting set of quotes. A statement by Representative Jay Inslee (D-WA) to Professor Edward Wegman is particularly telling:
I want you to make sure you understand the reality of this situation. I’ve given you all the sincerity that I could give to you. But the reason you are here is not why you think you are here, OK? The reason you are here is to try to win a debate with some industries in this country who are afraid to look forward to a new energy future for this nation. And the reason you are here is to try to create doubt about whether this country should move forward with the new technological, clean-energy future, or whether we should remain addicted to fossil fuels. That’s the reason you are here. Now that’s not the reason individually why you came, but that’s the reason you’re here. Thank you very much.
Not long ago, we discussed here how scientists are recruited — sometimes willingly, sometimes not — in such a manner to serve as pawns in political battles. Rep. Inslee clearly recognizes that science is simply a symbol in ongoing debates about energy policies. Presumably the witnesses that the minority invited to testify were brought in to serve a similar purpuse as those that he described to Dr. Wegman.
Ironically, from all accounts Dr. Wegman’s report initiated by the majority staff of the committee and the report led by Dr. North for the NRC apparently agree on all of the statistical and technical aspects of the hockey stick issue. The difference was that the North Committee went to great lengths to minimize the practical significance of their findings and the Wegman report did not. In both cases their characterizations of their findings reflect extra-scientific considerations.
Showing no shame, Representative Inslee asked Dr. Wegman if he could recite the three laws of therodynamics (you can’t win, can’t break even, and can’t get out of the game, courtesy of C.P. Snow). Dr. Wegman, a statistician, replied that he probably could not. Presumably the fact that Dr. Wegman could not recite these laws means that the nation should adopt Rep. Inslee’s preferred energy policies, whatever those might be. Of course, Mr. Inslee did not apparently recognize that since Wegman and North agree on the substance of the issues, discrediting one would seem to imply discrediting the other. But Rep. Inslee has already told us that the substance does not matter (See also the question posed by Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D-IL) and Han von Storch’s quite appropriate response).
On the other side Rep. Barton (R-TX) asked Dr. Wegman who he voted for in 2000, to which he replied Al Gore. Presumably this bit of Texas political trivia means that in fact Dr. Wegman’s statistical analysis has credibility, and we should thus favor Rep. Barton’s favored energy policies, whatever those are.
All in all last week’s hearing was a pretty sad day for science in politics, or more accurately – science as politics. Both parties came off looking pretty bad. And the scientists involved all looked helpless or unwilling to break out of the fix they were in — with the exception of Hans von Storch whose comments in my view were thoughtful and on target- PDF.) A lot of the blogosphere commentators on this issue have taken political sides just like the members of Congress and seem more than happy to wage their political battles through the science. Exceedingly few people seem concerned about the pathological politicization of science itself, and seem perfectly have to join the fray. I’d expect that we’ll see more of the same today. But maybe I’ll be pleasantly surprised.
Here is my two cents on the whole affair:
On the hockey stick in politics, I wrote here last summer: “Resolving the technical dispute will do little to address the larger issues of climate science policy or the symbolic and real political implications of the hockey stick debate.” See the rest of that post for a more detailed description of my views, which I see no reason to change.
On the hockey stick in climate policy, in this post from last fall we came pretty close to a consensus among participants in the debate that it does not matter for climate policy. of course, the policy and politics are interwoven, and my view is that the politics of the issue are an obstacle to policy (see my testimony from last week – PDF).
On the hockey stick in science policy and politics — here is where I think the most important issues are. The hockey stick debate reflects in microcosm just about everything that is wrong about the climate debate. Scientists who are advocates of action on energy policies, or simply are burdened by outsized egos, could have defused the hockey stick debate a long time ago by taking a conciliatory stance with respect to the critics of the hockey stick and its prominant role in the IPCC. The IPCC deserves a lot of the blame for the issue, first for elevating the hockey stick to an icon and then by circling the wagons when criticized. Hindsight is 20/20, but even the recent NRC report was a missed opportunity to defuse the issue.
The critics of the hockey stick, Steve McIntyre and Ross McKitrick, have proven how difficult it is for scientific truths to be kept under wraps, according at least to Drs. North and Wegman. This of course cuts both ways in the climate debate. They also have provided a case study in the power of blogs in today’s worlds of science and politics. But they have done themselves no favors by cozying up with conservatives. Perhaps this is a marriage of convenience, but it has served to further politicize the issue.
Finally, the big loser in all of this seems to be the IPCC, which appears to have viewed the hockey stick debate as something to win and survive, rather than learn from and evolve.
Bottom line – after all of the sound and fury over the hockey stick climate policy remains a mess and the politics as intractable as ever. Today’s hearing, I’ll guess, will continue this trend. Any comments from people watching the hearing would be welcomed.