Gregg, Welcome to the NSH Club!

In the New York Times today, author and commentator Gregg Easterbrook renounces his “climate skeptic” credentials in favor of accepting that there is a consensus on climate science. This qualifies him for membership in the burgeoning club of non-skeptic heretics (NSH). Here is an excerpt from Gregg says in his op-ed:

Yes: the science has changed from ambiguous to near-unanimous. As an environmental commentator, I have a long record of opposing alarmism. But based on the data I’m now switching sides regarding global warming, from skeptic to convert.

But what is it that I mean by “non-skeptic heretic”? These are people who accept the science of climate change but do not engage in meaningless exhortations or bland political statements, and instead openly confront some of the real but uncomfortable practical challenges involved with reducing emissions and adapting to climate. Easterbrook writes,

President Bush was right to withdraw the United States from the cumbersome Kyoto greenhouse treaty, which even most signatories are ignoring. But Mr. Bush should speak to history by proposing a binding greenhouse-credit trading system within the United States.

Easterbrook has previously commended the Bush Administration’s Methane to Markets program, which granted him immediate heretic credentials, coupled with his new NS status, qualify him to be in the NSH Club. Saying anything remotely non-negative about Bush Administration is a fast ticket to the NSH Club. Commenters here have almost gone so far as to call me a Republican (ouch!;-) for questioning certain firmly held “truths.” NSH members don’t seem to fall on partisan lines, though most so far are defectors from the climate policy mainstream, which helps to explain why they do seem to receive a chilly reception from the mainstream non-skeptics. There are nonetheless growing members from the traditional skeptic crowd as well.

A brief foray into the archives provides the following list of people whose writings suggest strong canadacies for membership in the NSH Club:

Myself
Dan Sarewitz
Steve Rayner
Kevin Vranes
Richard Tol
Hans von Storch
Nico Stehr
Steve Rayner
Myanna Lahsen
Bjorn Lomborg
Ted Nordhaus
Michael Shelleberger
Andrew Dessler
Indur Goklany
David Keith
Tim Dyson
Roger Pielke, Sr.
Michele Betsill
Chris Landsea
Karen O’Brien
Robert Lempert

There are of curse many more out there as well. And there seem to be others who are occasionally testing the waters of the NSH Club (the water is HOT!), such as reporter Andy Revkin, as well as some folks from the traditional skeptic community, such as John Christy.

For the mainstream climate advocates the NSH Club is a threat not only because it undercuts their primary point of authority in scientific cum political disputes, but it risks proposing practical and meaningful policy options that might in fact make a difference and thus allow them to leapfrog into a position of new authority on the climate issue. Consequently, there have been efforts to frame this group as traditional skeptics in new clothes, which are sometimes labeled as “impact skeptics” — who have the temerity to suggest that some future impacts of climate change might be less-than-catastrophic (for some), or might be best handled by adaptation, and “policy skeptics” — who have some doubts that the framework of the FCCC and its Kyoto Protocol are the last word on climate policy. And there are of course traditional skeptics who stand by their views, such as represented in he recent CEI commercials or by Senator James Inhofe (R-OK). Through such evolving framings of the debate we are seeing a mighty struggle to hold on to the status quo, which has been a fun and rewarding debate for many, but hopelessly ineffective from the standpoint of policy action.

The NSH Club seems to be here to stay and drawing members from both sides of the heretofore gridlocked debate. Expect much angst from those o both sides who will try very hard to preserve the old debate. At the same time expect much interesting discussion about policy, as science begins to take a backseat. Such discussion, like all important political discussions will sometimes uncomfortable and challenging, but it will be a breath of fresh air from the burgeoning ranks of the NSH!

Update: You can find Andy Revkin’s blog here, where he has some writings along NSH lines.