Kerry Emanuel and Michael Mann have a draft paper (which I haven’t seen, but I’ve seen Kerry present) in which they argue that the multi-decadal patterns of active/inactive hurricane periods in the Atlantic are mainly a function of anthropogenic forcings, including greenhouse gases and aerosols. Related to this work Emanuel makes a bold forecast reported in today’ Palm Beach Post:

“It’s unlikely we’ll ever see a quiet decade [for hurricanes] for the next 100 years in the Atlantic.”

I wonder if we’ll soon hear industry in the eastern US asking for relief from the Clean Air Act requirements justified in terms of reducing hurricane impacts (joke). More seriously, it’ll be a long time before Kerry’s prediction can be evaluated against observations, however, in the short-term, it simply adds to the overwhelming case already in place to enhance resilience to hurricane impacts in those regions known to be at risk to hurricane strikes.