Here is a question for the RealClimate folks, which I hope that they will address on their site, and other relevant experts are welcome to respond as well:

What behavior of the climate system could hypothetically be observed over the next 1, 5, 10 years that would be inconsistent with the current consensus on climate change? My focus is on extreme events like floods and hurricanes, so please consider those, but consider any other climate metric or phenomena you think important as well for answering this question. Ideally, a response would focus on more than just sea level rise and global average temperature, but if these are the only metrics that are relevant here that too would be very interesting to know.

Here is why I ask: I am in the midst of a professional exchange with colleagues related to some published work and the issue has been raised that certain observed climate phenomena are “consistent with” modeled results. But it seems to me that give the incredible number of model studies any observed behavior of the climate system is “consistent with” some model study that has been published somewhere by somebody. The way to make such a statement more meaningful would be to clearly distinguish a priori what observations would be “consistent with” from those that would be “inconsistent with” climate model behavior. I have often seen claims about “consistency” but never a discussion of what observed behavior of the climate system would be “inconsistent with” current expectations.

I have more than a passing interest in this question, having a long-time interest in the role of models (PDF) and predictions in decision making.

Thanks much for all responses.