On several occasions I have alluded to the fact that I think that the debate over the so-called “hockey stick” temperature reconstruction is a distraction from the development and promulgation of climate policy. And the debate goes on (and on). We have written frequently about the core dynamic of the climate debate in which political opponents pick a scientific sandbox to fight in, with little connection to policy, and fight things out in a public manner under a pretense that the debate has significance beyond science. Over time this skeptic vs. hawk debate has taken place over a supposed CO2 sink in North American, surface vs. satellite temperature trends, hurricanes and climate change and also the “hockey stick” (among other areas). Within science (including my own area of expertise) subject matter experts engage in vocal and at times nasty debates over knowledge. Such dust-ups are characteristic of the academic enterprise. But I’d assert that the battles over climate science go far beyond typical academic wrangling, are really proxy wars over something else. But what is that something else?


It might be political power, i.e., who gets to have a public voice on issues of climate change? Science is widely viewed as authoritative and legitimate, so everyone wants the imprimatur of science on their side. From this perspective the battle over climate science is a battle for standing, with little connection to the substantive connections of the scientific debates and practical decision making. In other words, the battle is over who gets to decide what action we take on climate change and not what actions we should take. This battle for political supremacy is most visible on the rival WWW sites that have sprung up to join the battle over the hockey stick (see RealClimate and ClimateAudit.)

But there is also evidence to suggest that some people believe that the hockey stick is relevant to decision making. For example, in its most recent assessment the IPCC clearly considered the “hockey stick” to be relevant to policy, as it included it prominently it is 2001 “Summary for Policy Makers.” The mission of the IPCC is to be “policy relevant” so presumably it is safe to say that any science that it presents (and particularly in its summary for policymakers) it considers it to be relevant for policy. But because the IPCC does not explicitly discuss policy, there is no way to glean from its reports why it thinks that the hockey stick is policy relevant. Further, the IPCC clearly does not need the hockey stick to assert its scientific authority and legitimacy, so there must be a very real presumption of policy relevance.

[There is also the possibility that the battle over the hockey stick has more to do with personalities and egos than politics or policy. However, while I am sure that personalities and egos play an important role in the evolution of this and the other proxy wars on climate, I do not think that they overshadow the politics and policy issues above.]

So here is my question to Prometheus readers: Is the debate over the “hockey stick” of any policy relevance whatsoever, other than as a battleground for political standing? That is to say, is the future resolution of the “hockey stick” debate at all relevant to understanding (a) our available scope of options on climate change, or (b) how we might evaluate those options? The views of those actually engaged in the “hockey stick” debate are solicited as well – why are you involved in this debate?